Superforecasting explores the science behind making accurate predictions and the characteristics that set top forecasters apart. Philip E. Tetlock, a renowned psychologist, and journalist Dan Gardner draw from decades of research, including Tetlock’s Good Judgment Project, which analyzed how some individuals consistently outperform experts in forecasting future events. The book delves into the mindset, habits, and strategies that make “superforecasters” exceptionally accurate, offering valuable lessons for decision-makers in business, politics, and everyday life.
Why read this book?
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Provides insights into why expert predictions often fail and how to improve forecasting accuracy.
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Breaks down the cognitive biases that distort judgment and decision-making.
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Introduces practical techniques for thinking probabilistically and updating beliefs based on new evidence.
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Useful for professionals in business, finance, politics, and anyone looking to make better decisions.
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Engaging case studies and real-world examples make complex ideas accessible.
About the Authors
Philip E. Tetlock is a psychologist and professor at the University of Pennsylvania, specializing in political psychology and decision-making. His research on forecasting and expertise has influenced policy and business strategy worldwide.
Dan Gardner is a journalist and author known for his work on risk, decision-making, and psychology. He has written extensively on how people think about uncertainty and the future, co-authoring Superforecasting to bring these insights to a broader audience.
